Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Hoosiers and Tar Heels

This is my official prediction for the Tuesday daily double primary. I have no logic worthy of mention here, but rather a lot of intuition and one eye on the myriad polling numbers that have been floating out there.

Clinton: 53
Obama: 47
Clinton wins by 6

The gas tax holiday and the stumping in the back of pick up trucks has worked for Clinton, although it's made her look absolutely ridiculous to most of America. I hate to label people "low info voters" because I think it's just politically correct speech that means to say, "dummies" or "hillbillies" or something along those lines, but let's go with something that splits the difference. "Dumb, low info, hillbillies." Just kidding. "Gut voters" seems to tell a bit of the story. These are people who aren't inclined to read a book, trust TV, or subscribe to a newspaper. They might listen to talk radio. Many of these people like the gas tax holiday and love to see her in a pick up truck under a skoal sign. The Republicans have cornered the market on these voters in recent years by nominating the ultimate "gut president." In the Democratic primary, the "gut candidate" has been Hillary Clinton. She's the known evil. Barack Obama is the scary secret-Muslim, with the hateful Christian preacher, and the arugula salads. His pandering has been far worse than Clinton's.

Obama: 56
Clinton: 44
Obama wins by 12

North Carolina, like its neighbor to the north, Virginia, has turned purple in recent years. In this election, it would still be an uphill battle to carry NC in the general, unlike Virginia which WILL go to Barack Obama, but the primaries are going very well. Large African-American contingent, large professoriate, large upscale suburban groups. The Nascar crowd that Hillary is counting on in NC is also powerful, but won't help her make up for the disadvantages she faces there. Bill Clinton has been stumping in NC with his best southern drawl out of mothballs (doesn't he spend most of his time in Harlem these days?) and he's hammered his populist rhetoric with that finger wagging all the way. I think he's helped her a bunch in NC. Nice to have the popular, former president stumping for you. I picked this state by 12 for Obama, but an interesting swing in either direction is possible. I secretly believe that Obama could win NC by 20, but the recent bad press may have done away with that completely. Instead, this race may close to single digits if the Clinton "get out the vote" machine is better than Obama's. That will decide whether this is a blowout, or a moderate victory for Barack.

Either way we go on. Her chances are dissolving, but she's going to try something. Watch.


mike's spot said...

That gas holiday rubs me the wrong way. Hillary's proposition leaves to much room for big oil to pass any increase in cost back on to the consumer. It's all smoke and mirrors- look like they are giving us something and kicking big oil in the nuts- when really you and I are still paying at the pump.

I'm not sure what the right answer is for oil- I think alternative energy needs to happen, but building some more rigs wouldn't hurt either. A band aid to slow the bleeding might help while we wait for some serious surgery.

Mike Plugh said...

Solutions off the top of my head:

1. Dems win the White House
2. Dems expand majority in Congress
3. Dems pass reform on oil company profits
4. Alternative energy infrastructure investment
5. Higher gas mileage standards
6. tax subsidies for solar and wind installations on individual homes and businesses
7. Follow the Kyoto Protocols
8. (sub)urban vehicle restrictions combined with manufacturer tax breaks for (sub)urban, light-engine vehicle development